Big JP

This post was written by “FOLLOWER” from the RMFL Message Board. You can find the exact link at http://www.rockymountainfootball.com/index.php?topic=1227.0

AAA Championship Prediction

And then there were two…

Let’s face it, this is the game that everyone expected to see, and most (besides the players from their own respective teams) people wanted to see. Dave Sire even predicted this matchup back in his AAA preview. When we saw the roster put together by the Revolution, everyone expected them to be in the championship. And after what the Shock were able to do last year, coupled with their new acquisitions, we all expected them to be the team to face the Revolution in late June. In all honesty, these are the two best teams in the league and therefore they SHOULD be playing for the championship. Collectively, they have beaten (and beaten quite convincingly) everyone else in the RMFL.

When trying to compare these two teams to better analyze their strengths and weaknesses, I first looked at their head-to-head match. I unfortunately made the huge mistake of attending another game that week so I didn’t get to see it live (this is a big deal because although I’ve seen in on Comcast, I didn’t get to “feel” the momentum swing or energy on the field, as this can only be really witnessed live). I have watched it twice on Comcast, and both times I have found myself thinking that both teams made big plays, and big mistakes. While the Rev definitely amassed the better statistics for the game, the Shock could argue that they made the bigger plays, and made them when they really counted. Another thing taken from that game is that both teams were missing players (due to suspensions, injuries, weddings, etc.). Also, that was the Rev’s first game EVER together but it was only the Shock’s second (I don’t know how well they traveled to Missoula the week before). Either way, because it was so early in the season, both teams were missing players, adjustments have been made, I expect this Saturday’s game to be like two different teams are meeting each other. I then have looked at who they have both played so as to see the matchups. Both teams played the Bears, and both teams beat them handedly. Both teams played the Blitz, and while the score for the Shock/Blitz game was close, I watched that game live and the Shock were in control the whole time and so I think that’s a wash as well (the Rev stomped on the Blitz, in St. George, but then struggled a little against them at home last week). Both teams faced the Heat and had similar results (almost the exact score both games). The Rev played the Spartans and dominated them up in Boise, while the Shock played the Blaze twice at home. The Spartans and Blaze played each other twice and both games were excellent so I think both teams are similar (Blaze/Spartans). This is where the Rev get the slight edge in comparables because aside from their game 1 loss to the Shock, they have virtually dominated every other opponent while the Shock, although winning, have skipped by multiple opponents.

Let’s take a look at player/position comparisons:

QB: this is your classic argument. Petersen or Kjar. Everyone has their own opinion as to who’s better, but I’d be willing to bet that if the RMFL held a fantasy realignment draft, these would be the first two players taken. I’m positive that there are 26 RMFL teams that would trade anyone for one of these two QB’s. They’re undeniably the most important players in the league. Who’s better? I think that argument is similar to Brady vs Manning. It doesn’t really matter and I don’t think you can go wrong with either one. The preference comes down to individual likes/dislikes. If you like someone to throw the ball 50+ times a game, complete 65%+ of them, and then blog about the experience using all the adjectives and emotional rhetoric found in your local thesaurus, then Chuckypita is your man. If you want someone who is a little quieter but undeniably the leader of his team, who is more apt to turn a negative play into a positive using his legs, then pick Kjar. Although many want a separation between these two players the truth is that this matchup is probably as even as they’ll get. Edge: Even

RB: Neither team really has a “go-to” RB, nor do they depend on the run much. The Rev use your classic ground-n-pound approach with their big backs while the Shock use more of your typical speed/shifty backfield. The Rev’s backs are probably better at picking up the blitz due to their size/experience but I’d take the Shock’s backs as better receiving backs. The ironic thing is that this game could very easily come down to whichever team’s running backs produce as a decent running game will do great things for both teams passing attack. T his is another matchup that can go either way and so neither team gets the edge. Edge: Even

WR: With all the passing both teams incorporate into their offensive scheme, both teams depend on the ability of their WRs to get open, catch the ball, and then make plays. We all know the importance of having good WRs in this league (look at the Rhinos dynasty with Greenbury and Young; or the fact that having Lincoln and Hall actually made Ol’Man Bennett a slightly above mediocre QB) and both teams have decent WRs. Looking at both team’s “top three” (Shock: Thornton, Hooper, Cook Rev: T.Christensen, D.Christensen, Seely) you have a decent matchup. I think Thornton and T.Christensen are two of the top 4 receivers in the league (I like Mapson and Hall as well, but that’s another article) and so they basically wash each other out. The next matchup is between D.Christensen and Hooper. Both players are a little undersized and use their speed/agility to make plays happen. Hooper has played in every game for the Shock and has put up consistent numbers while D.Christensen has only played in 4-5 games for the Rev but in those games has put up monstrous stats. It’s hard to know how good D.Christensen is though because his big games came against the Wolverines (twice) and the Cowboys. Neither of those teams have stellar pass defenders. I have talked to players on both teams and respectively, they both like their own guy more. The next matchup is against Seely and Cook. Both are decent WRs but I give the slight edge to Seely (he’s done more consistently this year, and in his RMFL career). The rest of the teams’ WRs all contribute about evenly but the Rev hold the secret weapon, the Predator, who can come in at anytime and produce a big catch and touchdown almost on command. Edge: Slight edge to the Rev.

O-Line: This is where the separation really begins. In the first meeting between these two teams Petersen had decent protection while Kjar was running wild. The craziest part of this is that I noticed #14 and #90 for the Rev playing O-Line for the majority of the game. Anyone who follows this league knows that Shoda and Ita are NOT offensive lineman. While the Shock appeared to have their full O-Line but now are without arguably their best lineman (Nick Vickers) due to injury. Kjar helps his line out with his ability to run which keeps the defense honest, but even with Kjar running for 100 yards in the last game the Rev maintained constant pressure on the Shock. Also, the Rev were able to run the ball (the few times they tried) against the Shock in the first meeting and now with their full O-Line available I expect them to try a little more of the ground attack. If everyone is there, the Rev may have the best O-Line ever assembled in RMFL play. Edge: Rev

D-Line: This is the tale of two completely different strategies. The Rev use their D-line monsters to open up holes for their LBs to blitz through. They have all the beef necessary to plug up the middle and the speed and discipline to protect the outside. The Shock on the other hand use a much smaller D-Line and trust that their speed will make up for their lack in size and when they do get through the O-Line they are able to chase down the opponents QB. Both strategies work for their respective teams but in fairness, if you had the opportunity to have Ita, Gali, Matagi, Taliulu, Talamaivo, etc. you’d quickly take it. This is where the game will be ultimately won/lost. I gave the edge to the Rev for their O-Line, so theoretically they should be able to better manage the Shock’s D-Line. But when you couple that edge with another advantage to the Rev for the D-Line, you have that vaunted D-Line going against the lesser Shock’s O-Line, Kjar’s going to need some Icy-Hot when this game is over. Edge: Rev

LB: Both teams heavily depend on their LB-core. Both teams have solid players who can step in and make plays when necessary, it was after all the LBs for the Shock that ultimately made the biggest play in the first meeting between these two teams. The Shock appear to use their LBs more in coverage while the Rev seem to like to blitz theirs a lot more. Both philosophies have produced great results this season. While the Rev have the names/pedigree, the Shock’s LBs have done enough to warrant respect. This is a close matchup but I have to give the slight edge to the Rev based on the depth at the position. Edge: Slight edge to the Rev

DB: This is where it really matters. Since both teams are pass-happy, the DBs are going to running around all game. In the first game it looked like both teams’ DBs had moments of greatness followed by major mistakes (Shock and Rev both scored on a broken coverage deep ball). Kyto will try to man his secondary into containing Christensen-Squared (Toby and Dave) while getting a body on Seely. The Rev have the players who can probably man up on the Shock’s WRs which will leave their LBs the opportunity to blitz Kjar. I expect them to put Stroshine on Thornton (this should be a classic matchup) with Reagin either manning Hooper or playing centerfield and taking away anything over the top. The Shock don’t have anyone who can play straight man on Toby so they’ll depend more on their Safeties picking up the slack. If Petersen gets time, he’ll pick apart the Shock’s secondary (his WR’s and himself are just too good). While if Kjar can break containment and run freely the Shock WRs should be able to get open. The fact that the Rev can play man and leave Reagin to attack the ball while the Shock are more dependent on coverage-by-committee, I give the edge to the Rev: Edge: Rev

Kicking/Special Teams: Both teams have good return men (Reagin, Thornton) and both teams have kickers that can kick it out of the endzone (Whetman, Cook) which could prevent either team from even having a chance at a return, I give this a wash. Also, both teams have solid kickers that, when needed, are capable of splitting the uprights from anywhere within 50 yards. Edge: Even

Intangibles: One coaching staff has D-1 experience (Drage) and multiple championships (Ev) under their belt while the other may have won a church ball region game…maybe. However, what they lack in coaching, the Shock make up for in unity. There is very little bickering among players on the Shock which creates an atmosphere of belief, unity, and trust. The Rev are split with players who have won championships (with Rhinos) and those who have been in constant pursuit (Utah Blitz, Wolverines) so they have both the expectations (we’ve been here before, we’ll do it again) and the drive (I want that championship). The Shock have won a AA championship which is the equivalent of winning $8 in the powerball lottery and so they still have the drive for “the big one.” Intangibles: Slight edge to the Shock….

The Game: Home field advantage doesn’t exist unless the drive is greater than 2 hours, and even less if it’s the championship game. Right now the weather report looks like it will be in the high 70’s and dry, perfect football weather especially for two passing teams. The league appears split between who they think/want to win, as many are picking the Rev, but just as many want the Shock. If you find yourself in the chatroom while both teams are represented it becomes obvious that while there is mutual respect, neither team really likes each other. The Rev have the stigma of “we belong here, just look at our numbers and roster…” while the Shock carry the coat of “we get no respect, people just think we’re lucky” while both banners carry some truth, the only truth is that these are the two best teams in the league and they both deserve to be playing this Saturday. I encourage any football player, coach, fan, cheerleader, etc. to come out and watch these two teams beat on each other this Saturday.

Through my years of prognosticating games I have always tried to remain unbiased. I am a fan of football first, and not necessarily of any team in specific. All I want is a good game and that is what I fully expect to witness. What makes this game so great is the fact that one team has all the pedigree/resume that all teams are jealous of while the other team is made up mostly of friends with little (if any) collegiate experience. While the Rev “dominate”, the Shock “do work.” Both teams will have to manage emotions early so as not to exhaust themselves too early (15 minute quarters really do make a difference) but I also expect both teams to “leave it all on the field.” The difference is that at this level, talent generally wins. While I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kyto & Co. hoisting the trophy at the games end, I wouldn’t bet on it. The Rev’s constant defensive pressure is just too much in the end and pull away late. For the Shock, I guess there’s always next year. Rev 31 Shock 21.

What do YOU think will happen at the RMFL AAA Championship game? Leave a comment here…